Micron: capacity is no longer the thing that gates revenue
Wafer supply stopped being the binding constraint two quarters ago. Substation interconnect and advanced packaging now set the delivery schedule, and neither is modelled.
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Discussion · 8
I have been waiting for someone to make this argument. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?
This changed my mind. The mix argument is the part I had not considered properly. What is the level where you would walk away?
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (875)
This is the second-order point everyone skips. The contract structure matters more than the headline rate. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (873)
I have been waiting for someone to make this argument. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?
I hold the other side of this. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?