Two decisions this year set a ceiling nobody has modelled

The networks held pricing for a decade. Two regulatory decisions this year set a ceiling the models have not incorporated.

Sara Cohen@sara_cohen

Evidence · 5 cards

The case

Two decisions this year set a ceiling nobody has modelled

The networks held pricing for a decade. Two regulatory decisions this year set a ceiling the models have not incorporated.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

The steelman

The counterpoint

“Capacity additions announced this year land in exactly the window your target needs supply to stay tight.”

The counter-counterpoint

They land, but they land at trailing-edge nodes. The tightness is at the leading edge, where the announced capacity is a rounding error until 2028.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

Take rate is the product of interchange, network fees and value-added services. Regulation has historically targeted only the first, which is why prior rounds did little damage. These decisions reach further. The effect is on terminal value rather than near-term earnings, which is why the market underreacts. A capped monetisation rate changes the growth rate in perpetuity even if next year's number is unaffected. The offset is value-added services, which remain unregulated and are growing faster than the core. Whether that is enough depends on mix arithmetic that is now the central question for the sector.

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