Alphabet: contribution margin per order is finally positive at scale
Contribution per transaction turned positive across every major market this year, not just the mature ones. Scale now helps rather than hurts.
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Discussion · 5
This is the second-order point everyone skips. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (1059)
I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The mix argument is the part I had not considered properly. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (1061)