Tesla: gross margin excluding credits is still compressing

This runs through segment weighting. A high-growth segment at a tenth of revenue needs several years of compounding before it can offset margin compression in the segment that is nine tenths of it. Segment revenue makes the scale problem explicit: the energy line is roughly a tenth of the total and vehicle gross margin excluding regulatory credits declined again this quarter. The position: short on Tesla, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. Regulatory approval arriving earlier than expected is the risk to any position that depends on the timeline, and approvals have surprised in both directions.