Microsoft: the AI story is real and the denominator is flat

Both things are true: the new product works, and there are no more people to sell it to at the current rate.

Elena Petrova@elena_petrova

Unlock the full report

The locked call and the disclosures stay visible. The research body unlocks with purchase or subscription.

Fact-checked claims stay on the record
Platform fee is shown as its own line at checkout (10%)
Call block and disclosures remain free to read

Already subscribed? Log in

Discussion · 6

Yael BrennerJUN 4

Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. What is the level where you would walk away?

Ines FerreiraJUN 3

Thanks for showing the workings. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?

Elena PetrovaAuthorJUN 4

Partly yes. The sell side has the direction and not the magnitude, and the magnitude is the entire trade here.

Dana KatzJUN 3

This is the second-order point everyone skips. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?

Yael BrennerJUN 2

Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The capital intensity point is the one I keep coming back to. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?

Yael BrennerJUN 2

I came in sceptical. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. What does the bear actually have to be right about?

PositionNo position

Compensation

Certified independent

ViewsThese are the creator's own views

This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.