JPMorgan: credit normalisation is not in the card book
Normalisation is arriving faster than the provision schedule anticipates. That is an earnings problem before it is a capital problem.
Evidence · 3 cards
Unlock the full report
The locked call and the disclosures stay visible. The research body unlocks with purchase or subscription.
Discussion · 7
Reading this against my own model. I had not appreciated how much of this is already in consensus. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
This changed my mind. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. Has anything in the last print changed the entry you would take?
This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. What is the level where you would walk away?
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
This is the one I get most. The bear has to be right that the channel clears without a guide-down. That is possible and it is not what the sell-through says.
Been long since the last one. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?
This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?