RESEARCHLMT
Lockheed Martin: capacity expansion is funded and the backlog already justifies it
The capital is committed and the demand to fill it is contracted. That is an unusually low-risk expansion.
Evidence · 6 cards
The driver is capacity utilisation against a contracted book. An expansion built against committed demand carries far less risk than one built against forecast demand, and the market prices both the same way.
The expansion is disclosed with dates and costs, and the backlog it is being built against extends several years past the completion date.
The position: long on Lockheed Martin, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit.
Execution risk on three simultaneous plant startups is real and has been mispriced in this industry before.
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