Elbit: retail demand and factory shipments have separated

The transmission is the channel. Factory shipments and retail sales can diverge for several quarters while dealers absorb inventory, and the correction arrives when floor-plan financing costs force a destock. Dealer inventory is reported separately from factory shipments. It has risen in each of the last three quarters against flat retail sales. The position: short on Elbit, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is a genuine retail re-acceleration that clears the channel without a production cut, which is the bull case and is not supported by the current data.