Coinbase: the reserve is adequate and the earnings path is not

Normalisation is arriving faster than the provision schedule anticipates. That is an earnings problem before it is a capital problem.

Elena Petrova@elena_petrova

Evidence · 4 cards

The case

Coinbase: the reserve is adequate and the earnings path is not

Normalisation is arriving faster than the provision schedule anticipates. That is an earnings problem before it is a capital problem.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 230.59Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 185.08Creator est.

The steelman

The counterpoint

“You are underwriting a margin structure that has only held for three quarters.”

The counter-counterpoint

Three quarters through a pricing reset that took two competitors out of the market. The structure is the consequence of the exits, not of the cycle.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

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COINShort

Near

Entry$230.59

Resolved$192.70

14d horizon

PositionNo position

Compensation

Certified independent

ViewsThese are the creator's own views

This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.