TSMC: the attach rate is the number that matters

The case

TSMC: the attach rate is the number that matters

Attach on the adjacent silicon has risen for four consecutive quarters off a much smaller base. Mix alone carries the gross margin without a single extra unit shipped.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 169.4Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 195.92Creator est.

The kill switch

I'm wrong if

Order intake declines two consecutive quarters
Gross margin below 44% on any printCreator est.
Close below the lock price on above-average volume

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

TSMC: the attach rate is the number that matters

Evidence · 5 cards

TSMC: the attach rate is the number that matters

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