CALLCHKP.TAabout 2 months ago6.8Kviews

Check Point: pricing power is showing up in renewals, not in the list price

List price is a distraction. Realised price per account has risen for five straight quarters, which is where pricing power actually shows up.

Ben Shapira@ben_shapiro_il

Evidence · 4 cards

The case

Check Point: pricing power is showing up in renewals, not in the list price

List price is a distraction. Realised price per account has risen for five straight quarters, which is where pricing power actually shows up.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 73061.5Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 84052.64Creator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

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Discussion · 6

Yael BrennerJUL 16

Reading this against my own model. I had not appreciated how much of this is already in consensus. What does the bear actually have to be right about?

Yael BrennerJUL 16

Good piece. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?

Omri ShakedJUL 15

Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. The mix argument is the part I had not considered properly. What is the level where you would walk away?

Omri ShakedJUL 15

Finally someone put numbers on this. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.

Yael BrennerJUL 14

Been on the sidelines on this one. The exclusivity window is the part the market keeps mispricing. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?

Ines FerreiraJUL 16

Been on the sidelines on this one. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?