CALLPLTR
Palantir: the aggregate is hiding the cohort
Total seats keep rising while the first enterprise cohort renews below plan. The blended number conceals that for roughly two more quarters.
Evidence · 5 cards
This runs through cohort behaviour rather than through the blended metric. Each enterprise cohort renews on its own anniversary, so a deteriorating recent cohort is invisible in the aggregate until it becomes a large enough share of the renewal base.
The cohort data is in the supplemental rather than the release. Net revenue retention for accounts acquired in the first enterprise wave has fallen for three consecutive quarters while the blended figure was flat.
The position: short on Palantir, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit.
The main risk is that the cost programme lands late rather than never. Late still gets there, and a name trading on a margin story tends to re-rate on the delivery rather than on the timing.
Discussion · 3
Sam WhitfieldJUL 7
Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?
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Elena PetrovaAuthorJUL 5
Reasonable, and I have thought about it a lot. The comp table took longer than the rest of the piece put together, so I am glad it was the useful part.
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Sam WhitfieldJUL 6
Been long since the last one. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
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