CALLMNDY.TAabout 2 months ago9.7Kviews

monday.com: the cost programme has slipped twice without a new date

The path to the stated operating margin requires support headcount to fall another fifth. The remaining accounts are the ones that consume the most support.

Isaac Levy@isaac_levy

Evidence · 6 cards

The case

monday.com: the cost programme has slipped twice without a new date

The path to the stated operating margin requires support headcount to fall another fifth. The remaining accounts are the ones that consume the most support.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 88392.66Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 78584.51Creator est.

The kill switch

I'm wrong if

Order intake declines two consecutive quarters
Gross margin below 44% on any printCreator est.
Close below the lock price on above-average volume

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

The steelman

The counterpoint

“Capacity additions announced this year land in exactly the window your target needs supply to stay tight.”

The counter-counterpoint

They land, but they land at trailing-edge nodes. The tightness is at the leading edge, where the announced capacity is a rounding error until 2028.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

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Discussion · 7

Dana KatzJUL 23

This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?

Yael BrennerJUL 23

This is the second-order point everyone skips. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?

Isaac LevyAuthorJUL 23

Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (1119)

Ines FerreiraJUL 22

Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?

Marco BianchiJUL 22

I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?

Dana KatzJUL 22

Been on the sidelines on this one. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. Has anything in the last print changed the entry you would take?

Omri ShakedJUL 21

Useful framing. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?