TSMC: order intake bottomed and nobody has marked it
Bookings troughed two quarters ago and the revision cycle follows intake with a lag. Consensus is still anchored to the trough print.
Evidence · 2 cards
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Discussion · 4
This changed my mind. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?
This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?
This changed my mind. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Honestly, that is the weakest part of the piece. The bear has to be right that the channel clears without a guide-down. That is possible and it is not what the sell-through says.