Arm: excellent asset, fully discounted

Positioning is crowded into the print and the options market is pricing a move the fundamentals are unlikely to deliver in either direction.

Yuki Tanaka@yuki_tanaka

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Discussion · 5

Sam WhitfieldJUL 17

This is the second-order point everyone skips. The channel data is what makes this hard to dismiss. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?

Yuki TanakaAuthorJUL 17

Reasonable, and I have thought about it a lot. The macro has to be neutral rather than helpful. If it is actively hostile this does not work and nothing in the position hedges that.

Dana KatzJUL 17

This lines up with what I saw in the filings. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?

Yuki TanakaAuthorJUL 16

That is the right objection. That is the objection in the steelman card. My answer is that the supply response is slower this time, which changes the timing rather than the direction.

Ines FerreiraJUL 16

This is the second-order point everyone skips. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?

PositionNo position

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