Coinbase: the non-spread businesses have compounded through the cycle
Fee lines grew through a period when spread income did not, which is what a diversified franchise is supposed to do and rarely does.
Evidence · 3 cards
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Discussion · 9
I have been waiting for someone to make this argument. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
I hold the other side of this. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (1038)
Useful framing. The contract structure matters more than the headline rate. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (1031)
Good piece. The comp table did more work for me than the narrative did. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?