CALLLUMI.TA3 months ago3.5Kviews

Bank Leumi: the NIM bridge depends on a repricing that has stalled

The guided margin path requires asset repricing at a pace the current curve does not support. The gap compounds each quarter it persists.

Evidence · 6 cards

The case

The guided margin path requires asset repricing at a pace the current curve does not support. The gap compounds each quarter it persists.

The edge

The Street says

I say

Path to target

The kill switch

I'm wrong if

Catalyst timeline

The steelman

The counterpoint

“Capacity additions announced this year land in exactly the window your target needs supply to stay tight.”

The counter-counterpoint

They land, but they land at trailing-edge nodes. The tightness is at the leading edge, where the announced capacity is a rounding error until 2028.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

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