Occidental: excellent capital returns on a flat volume story
Per-share metrics are improving because the share count is falling. The asset is not improving.
Evidence · 4 cards
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Discussion · 5
Been on the sidelines on this one. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
This changed my mind. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Good piece. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (785)
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?