NICE: the renewal cohort is converting above plan

The case

NICE: the renewal cohort is converting above plan

Renewal cohorts are converting at higher realised pricing than management guided. The churn everyone feared has appeared in seat counts and not in dollars.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

Checklist

Order intake inflected
Pricing held through the renewal cycleAuto
Capacity expansion fundedCreator est.
Second source contract signed

NICE: the renewal cohort is converting above plan

Evidence · 4 cards

NICE: the renewal cohort is converting above plan

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