Caterpillar: the order book has outgrown its historical anchor

The mechanism is backlog composition. Two order books of the same size behave differently if one is annually appropriated and the other is contractually committed, because only the second survives a budget cycle. The backlog disclosure now splits by customer type, and the newer category passed the traditional one this year for the first time. The position: long on Caterpillar, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is that the new customer set proves as cyclical as the old one once its own budget pressure arrives.