Nvidia: right franchise, wrong point in the capex cycle

The economics turn on utilisation. Fixed cost per wafer is set at the capacity decision; every point of utilisation above the planning assumption drops through at close to full incremental margin, and every point below does the reverse. Utilisation is the tell. The company guided to a utilisation rate below its own historical planning assumption while holding the capex number flat, which sets up the operating leverage in the following year rather than this one. The position: no call. This is a name I want to own and not at this level, so there is nothing locked here and nothing for the record to grade. If the entry improves I will say so in a piece that does carry a call. The risk is a demand shock large enough to make the supply argument irrelevant. If end demand rolls over, a packaging queue stops being a constraint and starts being idle capacity, and the mix argument goes with it.