This is a pricing structure rather than a memory cycle
Two tiers of the same industry have decoupled on price, and only one of them has a substitute.
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Discussion · 6
Been long since the last one. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?
Good piece. The channel data is what makes this hard to dismiss. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. The contract structure matters more than the headline rate. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?
Strong piece, one objection. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. Where does this break if rates back up another 50bp?
Useful framing. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. What does the bear actually have to be right about?
This is the one I get most. The macro has to be neutral rather than helpful. If it is actively hostile this does not work and nothing in the position hedges that.