Apple: two customers and a thin contract

The driver is contractual structure. Revenue concentrated in a small number of customers without volume commitments carries a higher cost of capital, whether or not the market applies one. The concentration is disclosed in the filings, along with the absence of minimum volume commitments from either large customer. The position: short on Apple, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. What breaks the cycle argument is a structural extension in device life, which has happened before and would push the refresh out indefinitely.