Broadcom: sell-in and sell-through have separated again

Distributor weeks-on-hand rose for the third straight quarter while sell-through was flat. Every prior instance of that gap closed through a guide-down, not a demand recovery.

Tomer Avraham@tomer_avraham

Evidence · 4 cards

The case

Broadcom: sell-in and sell-through have separated again

Distributor weeks-on-hand rose for the third straight quarter while sell-through was flat. Every prior instance of that gap closed through a guide-down, not a demand recovery.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Checklist

Order intake inflected
Pricing held through the renewal cycleAuto
Capacity expansion fundedCreator est.
Second source contract signed

The steelman

The counterpoint

“Capacity additions announced this year land in exactly the window your target needs supply to stay tight.”

The counter-counterpoint

They land, but they land at trailing-edge nodes. The tightness is at the leading edge, where the announced capacity is a rounding error until 2028.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

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AVGOShort

Open

Entry$231.84

NowPending

60d horizon

PositionNo position

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This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.