SLB: full-cycle economics improved and the multiple did not
The asset base got cheaper to run while the sector multiple stayed where it was.
Evidence · 5 cards
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Discussion · 10
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The comp table did more work for me than the narrative did. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (755)
This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. The capital intensity point is the one I keep coming back to. What is the level where you would walk away?
Strong piece, one objection. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (750)
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. What does the bear actually have to be right about?
Been on the sidelines on this one. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (753)
This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (757)