Broadcom: the constraint moved downstream of the fab

The mechanism is straightforward. Advanced packaging capacity is allocated a year ahead, so a unit that clears wafer test still waits on a substrate slot before it can be recognised as revenue. That queue, not the fab, is what sets the quarterly number. Three data points support it. Packaging capacity bookings at the two qualified subcontractors are sold out through the next four quarters, disclosed lead times extended again last month, and the company's own deferred revenue balance rose faster than billings for the second consecutive period. The position: long on Broadcom, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. What breaks this is a credible second source qualifying faster than expected. That is a two-year process historically, but a buyer willing to accept a specification compromise could compress it, and the pricing structure would go with it.