Tower Semiconductor: the hardware wins the benchmark and loses the deployment
The toolchain is the moat and it is not this company's moat. Silicon parity without software parity converts at a fraction of the rate.
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Discussion · 7
Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?
Fair challenge. I would size it smaller at a higher entry rather than skip it, because the asymmetry degrades gradually rather than cliff-edges.
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Finally someone put numbers on this. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.
This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
That is where I would push back. The bear has to be right that the channel clears without a guide-down. That is possible and it is not what the sell-through says.