CALLNVDA
Nvidia: being the alternative is worth more than the benchmark suggests
Large buyers are writing second-source clauses into every accelerator contract. In a supply-constrained market the alternative prices far closer to the incumbent than the model assumes.
Evidence · 6 cards
The chain runs through procurement policy rather than through engineering. Once a buyer mandates dual sourcing, the second supplier's volume is set by contract rather than won on benchmark, and pricing follows the constraint rather than the comparison.
Two procurement disclosures make the case. Both of the largest buyers have now confirmed multi-vendor accelerator strategies in their own filings, and neither framed it as a cost decision.
The position: long on Nvidia, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit.
The obvious risk is that the channel clears without a guide-down, which happens when a genuine demand upturn lands on top of elevated inventory. That is the bull case and it is not impossible, only unsupported by the sell-through data.
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