RESEARCHMNDY.TA25 days ago10.6Kviews

monday.com: the renewal cohort is converting above plan

List price is a distraction. Realised price per account has risen for five straight quarters, which is where pricing power actually shows up.

Sara Cohen@sara_cohen

The transmission is through realised price rather than list price. Discounting happens at the deal level, so realised price per seat captures pricing power that the published price schedule hides entirely. Realised pricing is disclosed indirectly but consistently. Revenue per account rose faster than seat count in each of the last five quarters, which only happens when discounting is narrowing. The position: long on monday.com, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The main risk is that the cost programme lands late rather than never. Late still gets there, and a name trading on a margin story tends to re-rate on the delivery rather than on the timing.

Discussion · 5

Marco BianchiAUG 19

Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?

Dana KatzAUG 19

Respectfully, I think this overstates it. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. What does the bear actually have to be right about?

Yael BrennerAUG 18

Strong piece, one objection. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.

Marco BianchiAUG 18

This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?

Sara CohenAuthorAUG 20

Partly yes. Early is a fair criticism of my last one on this name. The difference here is that the catalyst is dated rather than open-ended.