Apple: the average selling price is doing the work

The economics turn on mix versus cost. Margin defended by selling more expensive units is not the same as margin defended by making units more cheaply, and only the second is durable. The margin bridge shows mix as the entire contribution. Cost per unit was flat while average selling price rose, which isolates the improvement to the mix lever. The position: short on Apple, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. What breaks the cycle argument is a structural extension in device life, which has happened before and would push the refresh out indefinitely.