Broadcom: being the alternative is worth more than the benchmark suggests

Large buyers are writing second-source clauses into every accelerator contract. In a supply-constrained market the alternative prices far closer to the incumbent than the model assumes.

Marcus Webb@marcus_webb

Evidence · 4 cards

The case

Broadcom: being the alternative is worth more than the benchmark suggests

Large buyers are writing second-source clauses into every accelerator contract. In a supply-constrained market the alternative prices far closer to the incumbent than the model assumes.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

Checklist

Order intake inflected
Pricing held through the renewal cycleAuto
Capacity expansion fundedCreator est.
Second source contract signed

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