Pfizer: a binary priced as though it has already failed

The mechanism is probability-weighted optionality. When the base business alone covers the market capitalisation, a dated binary is a free call, and the position sizes to the asymmetry rather than to the odds. The readout date is fixed and disclosed. The current enterprise value is covered by the marketed portfolio on consensus numbers, which is what makes the event free. The position: long on Pfizer, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is a competitor filing that removes the limited-competition assumption on one of the launches, which is the assumption doing most of the work.