Microsoft: incremental revenue has passed incremental depreciation

The mechanism is a depreciation schedule. Capacity is expensed over its useful life while the revenue it enables lands immediately, so the reported margin is worst in the build year and best two years after it, entirely independent of demand. The disclosure carries it. Management broke out the incremental contribution for the first time and it exceeded the incremental depreciation line, which is the first time that has been true since the build began. The position: long on Microsoft, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is that the build cycle extends. If capacity commitments rise again the crossover resets, and the argument is postponed rather than wrong, which is the harder outcome to hold through.