TSMC: pricing is holding because the substitute does not exist

The premium tier has decoupled from the commodity tier on price. Substitution is the only thing that closes that gap and it is not technically available.

Maren Vos@maren_vos

Evidence · 3 cards

The case

TSMC: pricing is holding because the substitute does not exist

The premium tier has decoupled from the commodity tier on price. Substitution is the only thing that closes that gap and it is not technically available.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

The kill switch

I'm wrong if

Order intake declines two consecutive quarters
Gross margin below 44% on any printCreator est.
Close below the lock price on above-average volume

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TSMLong

Hit

Entry$182.26

Resolved$213.46

21d horizon

PositionNo position

Compensation

Certified independent

ViewsThese are the creator's own views

This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.