Nvidia: the constraint moved downstream of the fab

The mechanism is straightforward. Advanced packaging capacity is allocated a year ahead, so a unit that clears wafer test still waits on a substrate slot before it can be recognised as revenue. That queue, not the fab, is what sets the quarterly number. Three data points support it. Packaging capacity bookings at the two qualified subcontractors are sold out through the next four quarters, disclosed lead times extended again last month, and the company's own deferred revenue balance rose faster than billings for the second consecutive period. The position: long on Nvidia, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. Export controls are the risk that is not hedged here. A restriction round that removes a major end market would overwhelm the company-specific argument entirely, and there is no position size that makes that survivable.