Every restriction round produces a substitution push eighteen months later
Each restriction round has been followed by a domestic substitution push that lands about eighteen months later. We are approaching that lag on the most recent round.
Evidence · 4 cards
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Discussion · 8
Good piece. The exclusivity window is the part the market keeps mispricing. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
You are right that I skipped over that. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit.
This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
I have been waiting for someone to make this argument. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
Thanks for showing the workings. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. Has anything in the last print changed the entry you would take?
Honestly, that is the weakest part of the piece. The sell side has the direction and not the magnitude, and the magnitude is the entire trade here.
Good piece. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. What is the level where you would walk away?
You are right that I skipped over that. Without the catalyst date I would not underwrite it. The date is doing a lot of the work and I would rather say that plainly.