Micron: right franchise, wrong point in the capex cycle

The case

Micron: right franchise, wrong point in the capex cycle

No argument with the business. The entry is the problem: the multiple already discounts two more years of a capex cycle that has historically run three.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

Micron: right franchise, wrong point in the capex cycle

Evidence · 3 cards

Micron: right franchise, wrong point in the capex cycle

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