The weight-loss trade moved from efficacy to distribution

The second gate is payer coverage, which sets net price rather than volume. A product with full access at a lower net price can generate more revenue than one with narrow access at a higher one, and formulary decisions are annual and public. When efficacy is established across a category, the differentiator becomes supply. Fill-finish capacity is the binding constraint and it is a multi-year capital project, so the supply curve for the next three years is already largely determined. The implication is that the differentiated analysis is now industrial. Tracking validated line capacity and formulary placement is closer to covering a specialty manufacturer than covering a biotech.