RESEARCHSNOW
Snowflake: the cost programme has slipped twice without a new date
The path to the stated operating margin requires support headcount to fall another fifth. The remaining accounts are the ones that consume the most support.
Evidence · 3 cards
The operating leverage is in support cost per account, which does not scale with revenue. It scales with account complexity, and the accounts remaining after a migration are the complex ones by construction.
The headcount data undermines the bridge. Support headcount was flat sequentially against a plan that requires a double-digit decline, and no revised timeline accompanied the reiterated target.
The position: short on Snowflake, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit.
The main risk is that the cost programme lands late rather than never. Late still gets there, and a name trading on a margin story tends to re-rate on the delivery rather than on the timing.
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