CALLNVDA26 days ago10.1Kviews

Nvidia: order intake bottomed and nobody has marked it

Lead times have started extending again at the component level. That has preceded every upturn in this industry and it has never once been priced early.

Maren Vos@maren_vos

The driver is the lead-time signal. Component lead times extend before bookings recover and bookings recover before revisions turn, so the observable sequence runs about two quarters ahead of the consensus number. The qualification pipeline is visible in the customer disclosures rather than this company's. Two named accounts moved programmes into validation last quarter, which dates the revenue rather than merely implying it. The position: long on Nvidia, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The main risk is timing rather than direction. Cycles in this industry have turned early and then stalled for two quarters more than once, and the position is sized for that rather than against it.

Discussion · 9

Ines FerreiraAUG 19

This is the second-order point everyone skips. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?

Ines FerreiraAUG 18

Strong piece, one objection. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?

Yael BrennerAUG 19

This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?

Ines FerreiraAUG 19

This is the second-order point everyone skips. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?

Maren VosAuthorAUG 18

Fair challenge. Rates hit the multiple rather than the earnings path. A 50bp move costs perhaps two turns and does not touch the thesis.

Pauline VidalAUG 18

This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. I had not appreciated how much of this is already in consensus. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?

Maren VosAuthorAUG 18

This is the one I get most. The comp table took longer than the rest of the piece put together, so I am glad it was the useful part.

Pauline VidalAUG 17

I came in sceptical. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. Where does this break if rates back up another 50bp?

Dana KatzAUG 16

Thanks for showing the workings. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?