The export-control cycle has a predictable second order

The pattern has repeated across three rounds. Restriction removes a market, domestic programmes are funded in response, and a viable domestic alternative appears roughly six quarters later, at which point the lost market does not come back even if policy reverses. That asymmetry is the important part. The revenue lost to a control is recoverable in principle and the revenue lost to a qualified domestic competitor is not, because qualification is sticky. For the affected names the useful question is not what the next restriction does to this year's revenue. It is which product lines have a credible domestic substitute in development, because those are the ones where the loss is permanent.