Check Point: the aggregate is hiding the cohort
Total seats keep rising while the first enterprise cohort renews below plan. The blended number conceals that for roughly two more quarters.
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Discussion · 7
Finally someone put numbers on this. I had not appreciated how much of this is already in consensus. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?
Not convinced, but well argued. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?
I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.
Partly yes. Without the catalyst date I would not underwrite it. The date is doing a lot of the work and I would rather say that plainly.
I hold the other side of this. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
This is the one I get most. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit.
Good piece. The capital intensity point is the one I keep coming back to. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?