NICE: incremental revenue has passed incremental depreciation

This was the first period where incremental revenue from the new fleet exceeded incremental depreciation on it. That crossover was the whole bear case.

Sara Cohen@sara_cohen

Evidence · 3 cards

The case

NICE: incremental revenue has passed incremental depreciation

This was the first period where incremental revenue from the new fleet exceeded incremental depreciation on it. That crossover was the whole bear case.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

The steelman

The counterpoint

“Capacity additions announced this year land in exactly the window your target needs supply to stay tight.”

The counter-counterpoint

They land, but they land at trailing-edge nodes. The tightness is at the leading edge, where the announced capacity is a rounding error until 2028.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

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NICE.TALong

Hit

Entry$56,280.21

Resolved$66,467.73

14d horizon

PositionNo position

Compensation

Certified independent

ViewsThese are the creator's own views

This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.