Bank Leumi: the reserve is adequate and the earnings path is not
Normalisation is arriving faster than the provision schedule anticipates. That is an earnings problem before it is a capital problem.
Evidence · 3 cards
Unlock the full report
The locked call and the disclosures stay visible. The research body unlocks with purchase or subscription.
Discussion · 8
This changed my mind. The comp table did more work for me than the narrative did. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (702)
I hold the other side of this. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The contract structure matters more than the headline rate. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?
This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (700)
Not convinced, but well argued. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?