Elbit: this demand is structural, not cyclical

Multi-year procurement commitments have replaced annual budget cycles across four major buyers. Order books that follow do not behave like a cycle.

Raphael Moreau@raphael_moreau

Evidence · 3 cards

The case

Elbit: this demand is structural, not cyclical

Multi-year procurement commitments have replaced annual budget cycles across four major buyers. Order books that follow do not behave like a cycle.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

The steelman

The counterpoint

“You are underwriting a margin structure that has only held for three quarters.”

The counter-counterpoint

Three quarters through a pricing reset that took two competitors out of the market. The structure is the consequence of the exits, not of the cycle.

The analyst chose to be challenged and answered on the record.

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