Caterpillar: backlog composition changed more than backlog size
Backlog from the new customer set passed the traditional one for the first time. That diversifies the political and cyclical risk the multiple has always carried.
Evidence · 2 cards
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Discussion · 6
I hold the other side of this. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (762)
Thanks for showing the workings. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (764)
Finally someone put numbers on this. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. I had not appreciated how much of this is already in consensus. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?