JPMorgan: the NIM bridge depends on a repricing that has stalled

The transmission is asset repricing. Fixed-rate assets reprice on a schedule set years ago, so the margin path is largely determined by the maturity ladder rather than by anything management does this year. The maturity ladder is disclosed. The share of the book repricing in the next twelve months is materially lower than in the prior year, which caps how fast asset yields can rise. The position: short on JPMorgan, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. What breaks this is an unemployment move large enough to make the reserve inadequate rather than merely the earnings path wrong. That is a different and worse outcome.