Micron: channel inventory is doing the work the demand is not

The transmission is through the channel. Revenue recognised on sell-in accumulates as distributor inventory, and the correction arrives when weeks-on-hand crosses the level at which distributors stop taking allocation. The channel data is unambiguous. Distributor weeks-on-hand has risen in each of the last three reported periods while end-market sell-through was flat to down, which is the same configuration that preceded the last two guide-downs. The position: short on Micron, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The obvious risk is that the channel clears without a guide-down, which happens when a genuine demand upturn lands on top of elevated inventory. That is the bull case and it is not impossible, only unsupported by the sell-through data.