Two-year yields and the dot plot have decoupled again
Two-year yields have decoupled from the projected policy path for six weeks. When that gap persists past a quarter, the projections have historically moved to the market rather than the reverse.
Unlock the full report
The locked call and the disclosures stay visible. The research body unlocks with purchase or subscription.
Discussion · 8
This is the second-order point everyone skips. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?
Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?
Not convinced, but well argued. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?
This changed my mind. The capital intensity point is the one I keep coming back to. Has anything in the last print changed the entry you would take?
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. Where does this break if rates back up another 50bp?
Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The comp table did more work for me than the narrative did. Has anything in the last print changed the entry you would take?
This changed my mind. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
Honestly, that is the weakest part of the piece. The read-across is real for the closest comparable and much weaker beyond it, because the contract structures differ.