From cells to charging. I model unit economics per vehicle, not per narrative.

The premium tier has decoupled from the commodity tier on price. Substitution is the only thing that closes that gap and it is not technically available.



Bookings troughed two quarters ago and the revision cycle follows intake with a lag. Consensus is still anchored to the trough print.
Cost per vehicle fell faster than average selling price for the first time in six quarters. That is the only configuration in which this business scales profitably.
Storage backlog now extends past combined installed capacity and grid operators are signing multi-year fixed-price contracts, which is the opposite of the vehicle business.
Manufacturing efficiency has caught up with the pricing decisions taken two years ago.
Contract pricing held firm while the commodity tier rolled over. There is no second source at the required specification, which makes this structural rather than cyclical.
The high-margin attach is growing twice as fast as the headline line. Consensus models it as an accessory rather than as the mix shift it has become.